A return figure tells you where an account ended up. Drawdown tells you what the ride looked like. Two plans can end at the same number, with very different worst stretches.
What Drawdown Measures
- →Maximum drawdown: the biggest fall from a peak to a low.
- →Lowest balance: how far below your starting capital the account got.
- →Time under water: how long the account stayed below a previous peak.
- →Worst day: the single worst day in the record.
The Recovery Math
| Loss from peak | Gain needed to get back |
|---|---|
| 10% | 11.1% |
| 20% | 25% |
| 33.3% | 50% |
| 50% | 100% |
Losses are harder to recover than they look. That is why a plan with a modest drawdown can be better than one with a bigger headline return.
Can You Actually Stay In?
The deciding question is not 'what did it earn' but 'could I have kept following it through the worst stretch'. If a plan drops 40% and takes a year to recover, many people quit at the bottom.
What to Look for in a Signal Record
- →The worst drawdown shown next to the gain, not hidden.
- →How long it stayed below a peak.
- →The settings used, such as risk per trade and positions open at once.
- →Whether the figures are live or backtested.
In The Secret Vault
The Capital Model shows the gain, the worst drawdown, the lowest balance and the longest stretch under water on the same screen.
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Try The Secret Vault FreeIs a small drawdown always good?
It is easier to follow, but check the period and sample. A short record can hide risk.